Displaying Risk
Throughout Student Success & Engagement or SS&E, Risk Indicators and Risk Scores are present to allow for seamless interpretation of student risk associated with both course completion and student persistence.
A Student Success & Engagement predictive model is created by applying statistical methods to historical data at an Institution to derive a mathematical equation that produces a predicted probability of a desirable event occurring. Essentially, it is a process used to identify the historical characteristics and behaviors collectively demonstrated by a student in relation to a student's completion of a course, persistence to a future term and retention to the subsequent fall semester.
Many institutions decide to utilize both of these risk predictions in their student success efforts and this article is meant to provide insight into how these indicators and scores are calculated and displayed within SS&E.
For specific institutional information please refer to your Executive Summary that was delivered during the Predictive Analytics review at the time of implementation.
Risk Indicators are displayed within SS&E to indicate a certain level of risk and appear as small colored dots often displayed next to a student’s profile picture. Hovering your cursor over the dot-style indicator will display whether the indicator is a student persistence or course risk indicator.
Risk scores appear as percentages and are located in the upper right hand corner of a student profile denoting student persistence risk and in the upper right hand corner of a course section listing to display course completion risk. While Risk Indicators can provide us with an indication of student risk, Risk Scores provide a more detailed visual of Student Persistence Risk and Course Completion Risk.
The percentage listed (Risk Score) is the probability of the student persisting to the next term or completing the respective course and the Risk Level is identified via the color of the bar. Notice the bar represents 100% when filled completely, however, the bar will be filled only to the level of the Risk Score demonstrated for each situation.
Risk Indicator Definitions
It is important to understand that when predicting Student Persistence Risk with the student persistence model the prediction is for the student and explains their likelihood of persisting to the very next term. Thus the Risk Indicator is a direct reflection of that student’s risk to persist. The Course completion model, however, provides Course Completion Risk Scores for each course section a student may register for. Therefore, the Course Completion Risk Indicator displays Course Completion Aggregated Risk. This risk is essentially the highest risk level represented on any single course that has been registered for during the current term or future terms. The table below displays the definition of the risk level displayed for a student when Course Completion Aggregated Risk is being displayed within the Student Level Course Completion Risk Indicator.
Risk Display
In general, risk scores are displayed and aggregated into risk indicators using the most recently calculated Risk Score for past, present and/or future terms.
Course Completion Risk
Course completion risk is calculated and associated with a course section. The most recently calculated course risk score will always be displayed on the respective course, however, the risk indicator will be aggregated and displayed only for registered courses for present and future terms. This aggregation takes into account ALL actively registered courses regardless of whether the course is part of a present term or is an active registration for a future term. In cases where a student does not have a current or active future registration the Course Completion Risk indicator will be displayed as a grey (?). A present term is defined as any term where the current date is greater than or equal to the Term Start date and less than or equal to the Term End Date. A future term is defined as any term where the current date is less than the Term Start Date.
Student Persistence Risk
Student persistence risk is calculated and associated with a student. The most recently calculated student persistence risk score will always be displayed on the student profile. Thus during a present term where a student has demonstrated persistence by registering for a future term, the student persistence risk associated with the future term is what will be displayed on the student profile. In cases where a student has not registered for a current or future term the most recently displayed risk indicator for a students ‘past’ term will be displayed. A present term is defined as any term where the current date is greater than or equal to the Term Start date and less than or equal to the Term End Date. A future term is defined as any term where the current date is less than the Term Start Date.
Risk Summary Charts
Caseload risk summary charts show how your students break down by risk level for current and future term. Clicking on a section of the charts will navigate you to the student page and show you the students that comprise that section of the chart. Risk Summary Charts display the distributions of Risk Indicators as described above, thus taking into consideration risk associated with present and future term registrations.
